Predictive value of the C-reactive protein/albumin ratio in severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis.

Abstract

To investigate the predictive value of C-reactive protein (CRP) to serum albumin (ALB) ratio in the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP), and compare the predictive value of the CRP/ALB ratio with the Ranson score, modified computed tomography severity index (MCTSI) score, and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score. This cohort study retrospectively analyzed clinical data of AP patients from August 2018 to August 2020 in our hospital. Logistic regression analysis was utilized to determine the effects of CRP/ALB ratio, Ranson, MCTSI, and BISAP score on severe AP (SAP), pancreatic necrosis, organ failure, and death. The predictive values of CRP/ALB ratio, Ranson, MCTSI, and BISAP score were examined with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. DeLong test was used to compare the AUCs between CRP/ALB ratio, Ranson, MCTSI, and BISAP score. Totally, 284 patients were included in this study, of which 35 AP patients (12.32%) developed SAP, 29 (10.21%) organ failure, 30 (10.56%) pancreatic necrosis and 11 (3.87%) died. The result revealed that CRP/ALB ratio on day 2 was associated with SAP [odds ratio (OR): 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.32 to 2.29], death (OR: 1.73, 95%CI: 1.24 to 2.41), pancreatic necrosis (OR: 1.28, 95%CI: 1.08 to 1.50), and organ failure (OR: 1.43, 95%CI: 1.18 to 1.73) in AP patients. Similarly, CRP/ALB on day 3 was related to a higher risk of SAP (OR: 1.50, 95%CI: 1.24 to 1.81), death (OR: 1.8, 95%CI: 1.34 to 2.65), pancreatic necrosis (OR: 1.22, 95%CI: 1.04 to 1.42), and organ failure (OR: 1.21, 95%CI: 1.04 to 1.41). The predictive value of CRP/ALB ratio for pancreatic necrosis was lower than that of MCTSI, for organ failure was lower than that of Ranson and BISAP, and for death was higher than that of MCTSI. The CRP/ALB ratio may be a novel but promising, easily measurable, reproducible, non-invasive prognostic score that can be used to predict SAP, death, pancreatic necrosis, and organ failure in AP patients, which can be a supplement of Ranson, MCTSI, and BISAP scores.