Abstract
BackgroundResearch on talent in sports aims to identify predictors of future performance. This study retrospectively investigated 1) relationships between young handball field players’ technical throwing skills and (a) their potential nomination to youth national teams and (b) their long-term career attainment 10 years later, and 2) associations between nomination status and career attainment.ResultsResults from retrospectively predicting nomination status and career attainment using logistic regression analyses show that technical throwing skills were partly able to explain players’ nomination status (Nagelkerke R2: females 9.2%, males 13.1%) and career attainment (Nagelkerke R2: 9.8% for female players). Here, variables throwing velocity and time on exercise showed statistically significant effects. In addition, nomination status and career attainment were shown to be associated using chi-square tests (w of .37 and .23 for female and male players, respectively) and nomination status as a predictor increased the prediction of career attainment remarkably (Nagelkerke R2: females 20.3%, males 12.7%).ConclusionsGiven these results, basic technical throwing skills may serve rather as a prerequisite in this age group on national level, emphasizing its importance already on lower levels and in younger age groups. Furthermore, advantages from entering the national TID system early especially for females are discussed.
Highlights
Most coaches, scouts and researchers agree that performance as well as talent in sport is multidimensional concepts depending on a variety of aspects [1, 2]
Research in the field of talent has investigated many potential aspects and factors in various areas mostly conducting cross-sectional studies. While this gives valuable insights and expands the understanding of underlying processes and mechanisms, the field lacks longitudinal data and studies allowing for a better understanding as the concept of talent is by nature longitudinal
That is, coaches were at least to some degree able to predict future performance based on their observations, suggesting a positive association between nomination in youth and later career attainment, but the combination of various objective test measures appeared more promising
Summary
Scouts and researchers agree that performance as well as talent in sport is multidimensional concepts depending on a variety of aspects (e.g., technical, tactical, social, cognitive/psychological, physical/physiological) [1, 2]. It is important to note that differences in maturation and ‘relative age effects’ are closely related but different concepts that should be separated [10] These factors emphasize the individual and dynamic nature of both performance and talent that always needs to be considered when assessing young athletes. Cripps, Hopper and Joyce [14] had nine Australian football coaches prospectively predict their 264 adolescent athletes’ level of career attainment (semi-elite adolescent, semi-elite senior, professional senior) 4 years later. They found a fair level of agreement with the coaches predicting 63% of the athletes correctly. This study retrospectively investigated 1) relationships between young handball field players’ technical throwing skills and (a) their potential nomination to youth national teams and (b) their long-term career attainment 10 years later, and 2) associations between nomination status and career attainment
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