Predictive value of SOFA, qSOFA score and traditional evaluation index on sepsis prognosis

Abstract

Assess the value of several biomarkers and disease severity scores for the prognostic assessment of sepsis. The clinical data of adult patients, who met the diagnostic criteria for Sepsis-3 and admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou Medical University from January 2015 to December 2016 were retrospectively analyzed. These patients were divided into survival group and death group. The levels of serum lactate (Lac), lactate clearance rate of 24 hours later (24 h LCR), procalcitonin (PCT), quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) score, SOFA score, simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation scoring system II (APACHE II) score were determined, and the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) were used to analyze the prognostic value of the indicators above. 110 of 152 sepsis patients survived, while the others died. Compared with survival group, serum Lac, PCT, SOFA score, qSOFA score, SAPS II score, APACHE II score of death group were increased, and 24 h LCR was decreased. SAPS II [area under the ROC curve (AUC) = 0.877, P = 0.000, when threshold value was 41.50, sensitivity was 94.3%, specificity was 68.5%], 24 h LCR (AUC = 0.869, P = 0.000, when threshold value was 40.2%, sensitivity was 92.1%, specificity was 75.5%) and SOFA score (AUC = 0.815, P = 0.000, when threshold value was 7.60, sensitivity was 79.9%, specificity was 78.5%) showed better predictive value of sepsis. However, the predictive value of PCT (AUC = 0.759), Lac (AUC = 0.725), qSOFA (AUC = 0.701) and APACHE II score (AUC = 0.680) were poorer (AUC = 0.6-0.8). For sepsis caused by abdominal cavity infection, the most accurate index was SOFA score (AUC = 0.889, P = 0.000, when threshold value was 9.50, sensitivity was 81.2%, specificity was 83.5%), and for sepsis caused by pneumonia, the most accurate index was PCT (AUC = 0.891, P = 0.001, when threshold value was 3.95 mg/L, sensitivity was 84.7%, specificity was 94.1%). SOFA score and qSOFA score cannot take the place of traditional evaluation index for the evaluation of the prognosis of patients with sepsis.