Predictive value of serum HCG concentrations for outcomes of vitrified-warmed blastocyst transfers in women of different ages

Abstract

Research questionCan serum human chorionic gonadotrophin (HCG) concentrations on day 10 after single-blastocyst transfer (SBT) in cryopreserved transfer cycles help to predict the cycle outcome in patients of different maternal ages? DesignThe study included 772 vitrified-warmed SBT cycles. The initial maternal serum HCG concentrations measured on day 10 after blastocyst transfer were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to predict clinical pregnancy and live birth. Threshold values for predicting a clinical pregnancy were established in three different age groups: group A (21–29 years old, n = 360), group B (30–34 years old, n = 290) and group C (35–47 years old, n = 122). ResultsThe areas under the ROC curves for clinical pregnancy and live birth were 0.986 and 0.922, and the corresponding cut-off values were 113.28 and 146.37 mIU/ml, respectively. The optimal threshold values for clinical pregnancy as indicated by Youden index values for the three age groups were 145.15, 126.25 and 94.44 mIU/ml, respectively. ConclusionsThe study demonstrates that determination of initial serum β-HCG concentrations on day 10 after SBT in cryopreserved transfer cycles can help to predict cycle outcome in women of different ages. The optimal threshold value for clinical pregnancy for patients over 35 years of age was lower than that for the younger age groups.