Predictive value of prostate calcification for future cancer occurrence: a retrospective long-term follow-up cohort study.

Abstract

Although prostate calcification is often identified on pelvic CT images, calcification itself is usually not considered clinically significant. A recent histological study proposed an association between prostate calcification and prostate cancer occurrence. Our aim was to determine the predictive value of prostate calcifications for future prostate cancer occurrence. We retrospectively analysed male patients (≥50 years old) without prior prostate cancer history, who underwent unenhanced pelvic CT between April 2010 and March 2011, and followed-up until December 2021. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess prostate cancer risk with prostate calcification (defined as a high-density area larger than 3 mm with CT attenuation values ≥ 130 HU), controlling for age, body mass index (BMI), hypertension and diabetes mellitus. A total of 636 male patients (mean age, 68 years ± 9 [standard deviation]) were evaluated. At the end of follow-up, prostate cancer had been more frequently diagnosed in patients with prostate calcification than those without prostate calcification (6.5% vs 2.6%). Multivariate analysis revealed that prostate calcification on CT was a significant predictor of future prostate cancer occurrence (hazard ratio [HR], 2.7; 95% CI: 1.20, 5.91; p = 0.016). No statistical differences were observed in any other factors. Prostate calcification may be a significant predictor of future prostate cancer occurrence, and may be used for risk stratification and to guide screening protocols. Presence of prostate calcification on unenhanced CT scan was associated with increased incidence of prostate cancer occurrence on long term follow-up.