Predictive value of PASS score combined with NLR and CRP for infected pancreatic necrosis in patients with severe acute pancreatitis

Abstract

To investigate the predictive value of pancreatitis activity scoring system (PASS) combined with Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and C-reactive protein (CRP) for infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). Clinical data of SAP patients admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2020 to January 2023 were retrospectively collected, including basic information, vital signs at admission, first laboratory indexes within 48 hours of admission. The PASS scores at admission and 24, 48 and 72 hours after admission were calculated. According to the diagnostic criteria of IPN, the patients were divided into the non-IPN group and the IPN group, and the independent risk factors of SAP complicating IPN were determined by using univariate analysis and multifactorial Logistic regression. The receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was drawn to evaluate the predictive value of NLR, CRP, and PASS score, alone and in combination for IPN in patients with SAP. A total of 149 SAP patients were enrolled, including 102 in the non-IPN group and 47 in the IPN group. The differences in PASS score at each time point, NLR, CRP, procalcitonin (PCT), blood urea nitrogen, blood chloride, and days of hospitalization between the two groups were statistically significant. Multifactorial Logistic regression analysis showed that 72 hours admission PASS score [odds ratio (OR) = 1.034, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.005-1.065, P = 0.022], NLR (OR = 1.284, 95%CI was 1.139-1.447, P = 0.000), and CRP (OR = 1.015, 95%CI was 1.006-1.023, P = 0.001) were independent risk factors for IPN in patients with SAP. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the PASS score at 72 hours of admission, NLR, and CRP alone in predicting IPN in SAP patients were 0.828, 0.771, and 0.701, respectively. The AUC of NLR combined with CRP, PASS combined with NLR, and PASS combined with CRP were 0.818, 0.895, and 0.874, respectively. The combination of PASS score at 72 hours after admission, NLR, and CRP had a better predictive ability for IPN in patients with SAP (AUC = 0.922, 95%CI was 0.877-0.967), and the sensitivity was 72.3% when the cut-off value was 0.539. The predictive value of the PASS score at 72 hours after admission, NLR and CRP in combination for IPN in SAP patients is better than that of the combination of each two and individual detection and has better test efficacy.