Predictive value of machine learning models for lymph node metastasis in gastric cancer: A two-center study.

Abstract

Gastric cancer is one of the most common malignant tumors in the digestive system, ranking sixth in incidence and fourth in mortality worldwide. Since 42.5% of metastatic lymph nodes in gastric cancer belong to nodule type and peripheral type, the application of imaging diagnosis is restricted. To establish models for predicting the risk of lymph node metastasis in gastric cancer patients using machine learning (ML) algorithms and to evaluate their predictive performance in clinical practice. Data of a total of 369 patients who underwent radical gastrectomy at the Department of General Surgery of Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University (Xuzhou, China) from March 2016 to November 2019 were collected and retrospectively analyzed as the training group. In addition, data of 123 patients who underwent radical gastrectomy at the Department of General Surgery of Jining First People's Hospital (Jining, China) were collected and analyzed as the verification group. Seven ML models, including decision tree, random forest, support vector machine (SVM), gradient boosting machine, naive Bayes, neural network, and logistic regression, were developed to evaluate the occurrence of lymph node metastasis in patients with gastric cancer. The ML models were established following ten cross-validation iterations using the training dataset, and subsequently, each model was assessed using the test dataset. The models' performance was evaluated by comparing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of each model. Among the seven ML models, except for SVM, the other ones exhibited higher accuracy and reliability, and the influences of various risk factors on the models are intuitive. The ML models developed exhibit strong predictive capabilities for lymph node metastasis in gastric cancer, which can aid in personalized clinical diagnosis and treatment.