Predictive Value of Complete Blood Count and Inflammation Marker on Risk of Recurrence in Children with Henoch-Schönlein Purpura

Abstract

To investigate the predictive value of complete blood count (CBC) and inflammation marker on the recurrence risk in children with Henoch-Schönlein purpura (HSP). One hundred and thirty-three children with HSP admitted to Cangzhou Central Hospital from February 2017 to March 2019 were enrolled. The clinical data of the children were collected, at the time of admission CBC and C-reactive protein (CRP) were detected. After discharge, the children were followed up for 1 year, the clinical data of children with and without recurrence were compared, and multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors affecting HSP recurrence. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve should be drawn and the predictive value of CBC and CRP on HSP recurrence should be analyzed. In the follow-up of 133 children, 8 cases were lost and 39 cases recurred, with a recurrence rate of 31.20% (39/125). The age, skin rash duration, proportion of renal damage at the initial onset, percentage of neutrophils, percentage of lymphocytes, platelet count (PLT), mean platelet volume (MPV) and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR), MPV/PLT ratio (MPR), and CRP level of patients with recurrence were statistically different from those without recurrence (P <0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that long skin rash duration, renal damage at the initial onset, increased PLR, high PLT, increased MPV and elevated CRP level were independent risk factors for recurrence in children with HSP (P <0.05). The ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the combination of the four blood and inflammation marker (PLT, MPV, PLR and CPR) in the early prediction of HSP recurrence was 0.898, which was higher than the initial renal damage (AUC=0.687) and persistent skin rash time (AUC=0.708), with a sensitivity of 84.62% and a specificity of 83.72%. Observation of CBC and CPR can predict the risk of HSP recurrence early and guide early clinical intervention.