Predictive Value of Arterial Blood Pressure in Old Age

Abstract

In a 10-year longitudinal study of men and women aged exactly 70 at entry and otherwise only selected according to geography, the predictive value of arterial blood pressure was evaluated concerning cardiovascular disease (CVD) at entry and CVD development or death during the following decade. At 70 the prevalence of arterial hypertension (greater than or equal to 160/95 mmHg) was 46% in men and 45% in women. At 80 these prevalences were 19 and 30%, respectively. In women, this fall could partly be explained by an association between high blood pressure and excess mortality. In both sexes it could partly be explained by an increasing part of the population being treated with antihypertensives/diuretics, partly by an association with myocardial degeneration. In a Cox's regression model for competing risks at 70, high systolic blood pressure had independent, predictive value for excess CVD mortality in the eighth decade in women alone, and for excess CVD development in both sexes. High diastolic blood pressure had no independent predictive value for any of these end points.