Predictive value of 3 different risk stratification models for patients after congenital heart surgeries

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the predictive value of 3 different risk stratification models including the risk adjustment in congenital heart surgery-1 (RACHS-1), Aristotle basic complexity (ABC), and Society of Thoracic Surgeons-European Association for cardiothoracic surgery congenital heart surgery mortality score (STAT) risk scoring system for death and major complications in patients after congenital heart surgeries. Methods: A total of 3 578 patients (age<18 years old) received surgery for congenital heart diseases from January to December 2015 in Fuwai hospital were enrolled, and the clinical data were retrospectively analyzed. The congenital heart disease patients were 1.7 (0.8, 4.5) years old, and the male accounted for 54.3% (1 943 cases).Death after surgery and major complications including use of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, bedside thoracotomy, peritoneal dialysis for renal failure, bedside hemofiltration for renal failure, tracheotomy, reoperation for mediastinum infection, reoperation for heart in hospital were observed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated to evaluate the predictive value for mortality after surgery and major complications with RACHS-1, ABC, and STAT risk scoring systems. Results: The mortality after surgery was 0.4% (14/3 578) , and the rate of major complications was 3.2% (113/3 578) . For mortality after surgery, areas under the ROC curve were 0.682 (95%CI 0.570-0.795, P=0.002), 0.722 (95%CI 0.612-0.832, P<0.001), and 0.753 (95%CI 0.659-0.847, P<0.001) with RACHS-1, ABC and STAT risk scoring systems, respectively. For major complications, areas under the ROC curve were 0.709 (95%CI 0.667-0.751, P<0.001), 0.743 (95%CI 0.702-0.784, P<0.001), and 0.731 (95%CI 0.693-0.770, P<0.001) with RACHS-1, ABC and STAT risk scoring systems, respectively. Conclusion: STAT risk scoring system is superior to RACHS-1 and ABC risk scoring systems on predicting death after surgery, and ABC risk scoring system is superior to RACHS-1 and STAT risk scoring systems on predicting major complications in Chinese patients with congenital heart disease in the single center.