Predictive Value of 18F-FDG PET/CT Using Machine Learning for Pathological Response to Neoadjuvant Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy in Patients with Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

Abstract

Simple SummaryThe pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) is an independent prognostic factor for progression-free and overall survival in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). 18F-FDG PET/CT has been performed for initial staging work-up, treatment response, and follow-up in patients with NSCLC. Machine learning (ML) as an empirical data science has become relevant to nuclear medicine. We investigated the predictive performance of 18F-FDG PET/CT using an ML model to assess the treatment response to neoadjuvant CCRT in patients with stage III NSCLC, and compared the performance of the ML model predictions to predictions from conventional PET parameters and from physicians. The predictions from the ML model using radiomic features of 18F-FDG PET/CT provided better accuracy than predictions from conventional PET parameters and from physicians for the neoadjuvant CCRT response of stage III non-small cell lung cancer.We investigated predictions from 18F-FDG PET/CT using machine learning (ML) to assess the neoadjuvant CCRT response of patients with stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and compared them with predictions from conventional PET parameters and from physicians. A retrospective study was conducted of 430 patients. They underwent 18F-FDG PET/CT before initial treatment and after neoadjuvant CCRT followed by curative surgery. We analyzed texture features from segmented tumors and reviewed the pathologic response. The ML model employed a random forest and was used to classify the binary outcome of the pathological complete response (pCR). The predictive accuracy of the ML model for the pCR was 93.4%. The accuracy of predicting pCR using the conventional PET parameters was up to 70.9%, and the accuracy of the physicians’ assessment was 80.5%. The accuracy of the prediction from the ML model was significantly higher than those derived from conventional PET parameters and provided by physicians (p < 0.05). The ML model is useful for predicting pCR after neoadjuvant CCRT, which showed a higher predictive accuracy than those achieved from conventional PET parameters and from physicians.