Abstract
The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) and the Karakoram Range are the subject of ongoing hydro-glaciological studies to investigate possible glacier mass balance shifts due to climatic change. Because of the high altitude and remote location, the Karakoram Range is difficult to access and, therefore, remains scarcely monitored. In situ precipitation and temperature measurements are only available at valley locations. High-altitude observations exist only for very limited periods. Gridded precipitation and temperature data generated from the spatial interpolation of in situ observations are unreliable for this region because of the extreme topography. Besides satellite measurements, which offer spatial coverage, but underestimate precipitation in this area, atmospheric reanalyses remain one of the few alternatives. Here, we apply a proven approach to quantify the uncertainty associated with an ensemble of monthly precipitation and temperature reanalysis data for 1979–2009 in Shigar Basin, Central Karakoram. A Model-Conditional Processor (MCP) of uncertainty is calibrated on precipitation and temperature in situ data measured in the proximity of the study region. An ensemble of independent reanalyses is processed to determine the predictive uncertainty of monthly observations. As to be expected, the informative gain achieved by post-processing temperature reanalyses is considerable, whereas significantly less gain is achieved for precipitation post-processing. The proposed approach indicates a systematic assessment procedure for predictive uncertainty through probabilistic weighting of multiple re-forecasts, which are bias-corrected on ground observations. The approach also supports an educated reconstruction of gap-filling for missing in situ observations.
Highlights
The Karakoram Range is characterized by extreme-altitude remote areas and hosts very large glaciers, such as the Siachen, Masherbrum, Panmah, Baltoro, Biafo, Chogo Lungma, Batura, Hispar andRimo glaciers
To give an impression of the value range of mean monthly precipitation and the 2-m air temperature in Shigar Basin in absence of within-basin in situ observations, we report the monthly climatology of precipitation and temperature spatial averages for raw unprocessed reanalysis outputs at Shigar Basin for 1979–2014 in Figures 2 and 3
The Bayesian Model-Conditional Processor (MCP) has been used to estimate the predictive uncertainty for two meteorological variables required in regional hydro-glaciological mass balance analysis
Summary
The Karakoram Range is characterized by extreme-altitude remote areas and hosts very large glaciers, such as the Siachen, Masherbrum, Panmah, Baltoro, Biafo, Chogo Lungma, Batura, Hispar and. These glaciers account for nearly 3% of the total global ice reserves outside Greenland and Antarctica [1,2]. The rivers draining the southern slopes of the Karakoram Range carry meltwater from these glaciers and snow-covered areas and feed the Upper Indus River, which impounds water at Tarbela. Reservoir at the outlet of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Tarbela is the origin of the western branch of the extensive Indus Irrigation System and serves hydropower production. Snow and ice accumulation during the Monsoon season and melting during the summer months are the drivers behind runoff
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