Predictive uncertainty assessment in real time flood forecasting

Abstract

Scope of the present paper is to provide an assessment of the state of the art of predictive uncertainty in flood forecasting. After defining what is meant by predictive uncertainty, the role and the importance of estimating predictive uncertainty within the context of flood management and in particular flood emergency management, is here discussed. Furthermore, the role of model and parameter uncertainty is presented together with alternative approaches aimed at taking them into account in the estimation of predictive uncertainty. In terms of operational tools, the paper also describes three of the recently developed Hydrological Uncertainty Processors. Finally, given the increased interest in meteorological ensemble precipitation forecasts, the paper discusses possible approaches aimed at incorporating input forecasting uncertainty in predictive uncertainty. Keyword: forecasting.