Predictive tourism models: are they suitable in the polar environment?

Abstract

AbstractPolar tourism is a quickly growing, little-studied industry. Understanding tourism's current effects and forecasting future ones is increasingly important. This paper investigates the applicability and usefulness of predictive tourism models for polar environments, by focusing upon Arctic Ship Tourism (AST). R.W. Butler's evolutionary tourism model is presented, with emphasis upon Stanley Plog's version. The strong fit of AST within the framework of these models is established, with emphasis on likely future developments. Usefulness of models in the polar context is limited by several factors, including their origins, their lack of a price/demand element, their deterministic cycle, and vagueness. Still, identifying likely future trends, such as growth levels, passenger characteristics, regulatory mechanisms, and environmental impacts, can result in practical advice for polar resource managers and tour operators.