Predictive Temporal Analytics Method in Situational Modeling of the Evolution of Complex Systems

Abstract

The article discusses the main characteristics of complex systems, as well as the structures, domains and interactions occurring in the course of evolution. The main properties of complex systems are defined to include openness, non-ergodicity, disequilibrium, activity and multiplicity of goals. The classification attributes are defined to include free energy, anthropic factor, incomplete observability, computational irreducibility, dominant coded interactions, dynamic structure and transformable environments. A variety of primary entities, which form complex systems, are represented by two classes, possible individuals and abstract individuals. The space-time structure as a 6D continuum is formulated; spatial and temporal vacuums and quanta of interaction are defined. The three-dimensional time is presented in terms of three orthogonal components: coordinate time, structural time and discrete time. The coordinate time corresponds to the variability of a system when individuals move in space; the structural time corresponds to the variability of a system when the structure of individuals changes; the discrete time corresponds to the variability of the system caused by informational interaction between or within individuals. A model of a one-time ideal event and a continuous event is defined. The interaction between individuals is presented through a two-way reflexive model of cyclic interaction of an actor and an acceptor. The occurrence of post-causes and post-effects of physical interactions is shown to result in unpredictable chains of effects. The essence of the predictive temporal analytics method is presented. The use of the method involves the construction of a six-dimensional hypergraph of cause-and-effect relations with subsequent analysis of a body of causes and effects. The optimal way of evolution of a system is considered a way that maximizes diversity (in terms of liberty of actions, states, goals achieved) and minimizes the energy costs in a certain time perspective.