Predictive study on the pooling fund income and expenditure of the basic medical insurance for urban employees in Beijing

Abstract

Objective To predict the age structure of basic medical insurance participants in Beijing from 2017 to 2030, and the pooling fund income and expenditure of basic medical insurance for urban employees in Beijing for the same period, for reference of the establishment of a scientific and reasonable medical insurance policy. Methods Based on the data of basic medical insurance participants in Beijing from 2010 to 2016, the age structure of insured population from 2017 to 2030 was calculated by Feedback calculating method. Combined with the growth rate of pooling fund income and expenditure of basic medical insurance for urban employees, the pooling fund income and expenditure was predicted from 2017 to 2030. Results The age structure of basic medical insurance participants in Beijing stays at a young stage at present in general, and the fund is faced with less fund-raising pressure relatively. The proportion of retirees and those insured aged 65 years old and above will be up to 23.28% and 15.06%, respectively. The pressure of fund operation is increasing. Conclusions Under the existing policies, the pressure on fund operation is increasing, and the fund may fail to make ends meet in the future, which calls for measures to cope with. Key words: Insurance; Age structure; Fund prediction; Beijing