Predictive stability study of poverty trend in Uganda using selected indicators

Abstract

This study investigates poverty dynamics in Uganda, employing an extensive stability analysis of different socioeconomic indicators to understand long-term trends and likely drivers of poverty. An eighteen years yearly secondary data from 1992 to 2020 on poverty rates for the selected indicators under review sourced from World Bank site was utilized for all the data analysis. Outcomes from extensive data analysis shows considerable reductions in poverty rates over time, especially in outlying areas of eastern and northern Uganda despite increasing income inequality as suggested by the increasing Gini coefficient. All the metrics have a significant impact on Uganda's poverty rates, with the exception of the poverty headcount ratio, which stands at USD 6.85 per day (2017 PPP) as a percentage of the population. Particularly, the forecasted values also show a fluctuating trend movement, both downward and upward, suggesting possible variability in future poverty rates in Uganda. The necessity to carefully evaluate as well as monitor poverty dynamics to guide policy interventions aimed at reducing poverty is underlined by this information. Additionally, the stability analysis framework suggested in this research provides insights into the viability as well as resilience of Uganda's socioeconomic system in tackling poverty, enabling evidence based policies and interventions in poverty reduction. The study suggests more examination of various other dimensions of poverty and non-monetary indicators of well-being to better our understanding and support better poverty alleviation methods in Uganda along with other similar settings.