Predictive Reliability Assessment of Generation System

Abstract

Due to increasing load and characteristic stagnation and fluctuations of existing generation systems capacity, the reliability assessment of generation systems is crucial to system adequacy. Furthermore, a rapid load increase could amount to a consequent sudden deficit in the generation supply before the next scheduled assessment. Hence, a reliability assessment is conducted at regular and close intervals to ensure adequacy. This study simulates and establishes the relationship between the load growth and generation capacity using the generation and load data of the IEEE reliability test system (IEEE RTS ‘96 standard). The generation capacity states and the risk model were obtained using the sequential Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. The load was gradually increased stepwise and is simulated against the constant generation capacity. In each case, the reliability index was recorded in terms of loss-of-load evaluation (LOLE). The recorded reliability index was thereafter fitted with the load-growth trend by the linear regression approach. A predictive assessment approach is thereafter proffered through the obtained fitting equation. In addition, a reliability threshold is effectively determined at a yield point for a reliability benchmark.