Abstract
Background: This is an update of the Mossbridge et al’s meta-analysis related to the physiological anticipation preceding seemingly unpredictable stimuli which overall effect size was 0.21; 95% Confidence Intervals: 0.13 - 0.29 Methods: Nineteen new peer and non-peer reviewed studies completed from January 2008 to June 2018 were retrieved describing a total of 27 experiments and 36 associated effect sizes. Results: The overall weighted effect size, estimated with a frequentist multilevel random model, was: 0.28; 95% Confidence Intervals: 0.18-0.38; the overall weighted effect size, estimated with a multilevel Bayesian model, was: 0.28; 95% Credible Intervals: 0.18-0.38. The weighted mean estimate of the effect size of peer reviewed studies was higher than that of non-peer reviewed studies, but with overlapped confidence intervals: Peer reviewed: 0.36; 95% Confidence Intervals: 0.26-0.47; Non-Peer reviewed: 0.22; 95% Confidence Intervals: 0.05-0.39. Similarly, the weighted mean estimate of the effect size of Preregistered studies was higher than that of Non-Preregistered studies: Preregistered: 0.31; 95% Confidence Intervals: 0.18-0.45; No-Preregistered: 0.24; 95% Confidence Intervals: 0.08-0.41. The statistical estimation of the publication bias by using the Copas selection model suggest that the main findings are not contaminated by publication bias. Conclusions: In summary, with this update, the main findings reported in Mossbridge et al’s meta-analysis, are confirmed.
Highlights
The human ability to predict future events has been crucial in our evolutionary development and proliferation over epochs of time, both from a species perspective, and, on an individual level
Our day-to-day survival is predicated on a successful marriage of experience and sensory processing; for example, on a very humid heavily overcast night, our perceptions and memories inform us that a thunder storm is possible and it might be intelligent to find shelter
We did not find substantial differences between peer and non-peer reviewed papers as in the original paper, as the confidence intervals of their mean effect size, overlap considerably. This update confirms the main results reported in Mossbridge et al (2012) original meta-analysis and gives further support to the hypothesis of predictive physiological anticipatory activity of future random events. This phenomenon may be considered among the more reliable within those covered under the umbrella term “psi”
Summary
The human ability to predict future events has been crucial in our evolutionary development and proliferation over epochs of time, both from a species perspective, and, on an individual level. Our day-to-day survival is predicated on a successful marriage of experience (e.g., memory) and sensory processing (e.g., perceptual cues); for example, on a very humid heavily overcast night, our perceptions and memories inform us that a thunder storm is possible and it might be intelligent to find shelter Such behaviour is highly adaptive as it fosters survival based strategies and is perfectly explicable in terms of current theories of biological causality. Moments before the stimulus is presented there are physiological changes ahead of time This effect is termed presentiment, or more recently, Predictive Anticipatory Activity (Mossbridge et al, 2014). This is an update of the Mossbridge et al’s meta-analysis related to the physiological anticipation preceding seemingly unpredictable stimuli which overall effect size was 0.21; 95% Confidence Intervals: 0.13 - 0.29 Methods: Nineteen new peer and non-peer reviewed studies completed from January 2008 to June 2018 were retrieved describing a total of 27 experiments and 36 associated effect sizes. Conclusions: In summary, with this update, the main findings reported in Mossbridge et al’s meta-analysis, are confirmed
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