Predictive Modelling of Diabetes Risk in Population Groups Defined by Socioeconomic and Lifestyle Factors in Canada: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Abstract

This study modelled diabetes risk for population groups in Canada defined by socioeconomic and lifestyle characteristics and investigated inequities in diabetes risk using a validated population risk prediction algorithm. We defined population groups, informed by determinants of health frameworks. We applied the Diabetes Population Risk Tool (DPoRT) to 2017/2018 Canadian Community Health Survey data to predict 10-year diabetes risk and cases across population groups. We modelled a preventive intervention scenario to estimate reductions in diabetes for population groups and impacts on the inequity in diabetes risk across income and education. The population group with at least one lifestyle and at least one socioeconomic/structural risk factor had the highest estimated 10-year diabetes risk and number of new cases. When an intervention with a 5% relative risk reduction was modelled for this population group, diabetes risk decreased by 0.5% (females) and 0.7% (males) and the inequity in diabetes risk across income and education levels was reduced. Preventative interventions that address socioeconomic and structural risk factors have potential to reduce inequities in diabetes risk and overall diabetes burden.