Predictive modelling and spatial mapping of freshwater fish and decapod assemblages using GIS and neural networks

Abstract

Summary1. We used stream fish and decapod spatial occurrence data extracted from a national database and recent surveys with geospatial landuse data, geomorphologic, climatic, and spatial data in a geographical information system (GIS) to model fish and decapod occurrence in the Wellington Region, New Zealand.2. To predict the occurrence of each species at a site from a common set of predictor variables we used a multi‐response, artificial neural network (ANN), to produce a single model that predicted the entire fish and decapod assemblage in one procedure.3. The predictions from the ANN using this landscape scale data proved very accurate based on evaluation metrics that are independent of species abundance or probability thresholds. The important variables contributing to the predictions included the latitudinal and elevational position of the site reach, catchment area, average air temperature, the vegetation type, landuse proportions of the catchment, and catchment geology.4. Geospatial data available for the entire regional river network were then used to create a habitat‐suitability map for all 14 species over the regional river network using a GIS. This prediction map has many potential uses including: monitoring and predicting temporal changes in fish communities caused by human activities and shifts in climate, identifying areas in need of protection, biodiversity hotspots, and areas suitable for the reintroduction of endangered or rare species.