Predictive Modeling Using a Composite Index of Sleep and Cognition in the Alzheimer's Continuum: A Decade-Long Historical Cohort Study.

Abstract

Sleep disturbances frequently affect Alzheimer's disease (AD), with up to 65% patients reporting sleep-related issues that may manifest up to a decade before AD symptoms. To construct a nomogram that synthesizes sleep quality and cognitive performance for predicting cognitive impairment (CI) conversion outcomes. Using scores from three well-established sleep assessment tools, Pittsburg Sleep Quality Index, REM Sleep Behavior Disorder Screening Questionnaire, and Epworth Sleepiness Scale, we created the Sleep Composite Index (SCI), providing a comprehensive snapshot of an individual's sleep status. Initially, a CI conversion prediction model was formed via COX regression, fine-tuned by bidirectional elimination. Subsequently, an optimized prediction model through COX regression, depicted as a nomogram, offering predictions for CI development in 5, 8, and 12 years among cognitively unimpaired (CU) individuals. After excluding CI patients at baseline, our study included 816 participants with complete baseline and follow-up data. The CU group had a mean age of 66.1±6.7 years, with 36.37% males, while the CI group had an average age of 70.3±9.0 years, with 39.20% males. The final model incorporated glial fibrillary acidic protein, Verbal Fluency Test and SCI, and an AUC of 0.8773 (0.792-0.963). In conclusion, the sleep-cognition nomogram we developed could successfully predict the risk of converting to CI in elderly participants and could potentially guide the design of interventions for rehabilitation and/or cognitive enhancement to improve the living quality for healthy older adults, detect at-risk individuals, and even slow down the progression of AD.