Predictive modeling of swell-strength of expansive soils using artificial intelligence approaches: ANN, ANFIS and GEP

Abstract

This study presents the development of new empirical prediction models to evaluate swell pressure and unconfined compression strength of expansive soils (PsUCS-ES) using three soft computing methods, namely artificial neural networks (ANNs), adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and gene expression programming (GEP). An extensive database comprising 168 Ps and 145 UCS records was established after a comprehensive literature search. The nine most influential and easily determined geotechnical parameters were taken as the predictor variables. The network was trained and tested, and the predictions of the proposed models were compared with the observed results. The performance of all the models was tested using mean absolute error (MAE), root squared error (RSE), root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), correlation coefficient (R), regression coefficient (R2) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE). The sensitivity analysis indicated that the increasing order of inputs importance in case of Ps followed the order: maximum dry density MDD (30.5%) > optimum moisture content OMC (28.7%) > swell percent SP (28.1%) > clay fraction CF (9.4%) > plasticity index PI (3.2%) > specific gravity Gs (0.1%), whereas, in case of UCS it followed the order: sand (44%) > PI (26.3%) > MDD (16.8%) > silt (6.8%) > CF (3%) > SP (2.9%) > Gs (0.2%) > OMC (0.03%). Parametric analysis was also performed and the resulting trends were found to be in line with findings of past literature. The comparison results reflected that GEP and ANN are efficacious and reliable techniques for estimation of PsUCS-ES. The derived mathematical GP-based equations portray the novelty of GEP model and are comparatively simple and reliable. The Roverall values for PsUCS-ES followed the order: ANN > GEP > ANFIS, with all values lying above the acceptable range of 0.80. Hence, all the proposed AI approaches exhibit superior performance, possess high generalization and prediction capability, and evaluate the relative importance of the input parameters in predicting the PsUCS-ES. The GEP model outperformed the other two models in terms of closeness of training, validation and testing data set with the ideal fit (1:1) slope. Evidently the findings of this study can help researchers, designers and practitioners to readily evaluate the swell-strength characteristics of the widespread expansive soils thus curtailing their environmental vulnerabilities which leads to faster, safer and sustainable construction from the standpoint of environment friendly waste management.