Predictive Modeling of High-Bypass Turbofan Engine Deterioration

Abstract


 
 
 The deterioration of high-bypass turbofan aircraft engines is an area of study that has the potential to provide valuable information to both engine manufacturers and users. Differences in deterioration between engines corresponding to different airlines, climates or flight patterns offer insight into ideal maintenance patterns and fine-tuned estimates on engine lifetime for airlines that operate over a wide range of conditions. In this paper, a model of high-bypass turbofan aircraft engine deterioration – based on cycle frequency, air quality, relative passenger mass and climate – and its possible application as a predictor of engine health and lifetime is described. Because the quantity of interest was long-term changes in engine health, the data set was mid- flight snapshot data, grouped as a set of time-series corresponding to different engines. Ultimately, a simple model was derived which can be used to predict how long a high-bypass turbofan engine will last under given conditions. Since all of the engines used in this study were the same configuration and model, the numeric results will be most valid when predicting health of engines of that variety. However, the approach outlined here could be used for any type of engine with enough available data. The results will allow manufacturers to provide better maintenance recommendations to owners of the assets.