Predictive Modeling of Future Trends in US Healthcare Data and Outcomes

Abstract

Predictive modeling has great potential to help guide healthcare policymaking and planning through forecasting future trends in domains such as disease prevalence, resource utilization, and costs. However, past research in this area has been limited by mostly examining small, narrow datasets that only captured specific illnesses or geographic regions. This study aimed to leverage more sophisticated predictive analytics to generate informed estimations of the most consequential healthcare trends anticipated in the United States throughout the next decade. The analysis drew upon an extensive collection of over 50 million longitudinal electronic health records spanning a 5-year timeframe, comprehensive national public health statistics from the same period, and Medicare claims encompassing 72 million beneficiaries. Advanced machine learning techniques, including neural networks and Bayesian additive regression trees, were applied to identify nonlinear relationships and temporal patterns across 500 variables related to patient demographics, medical diagnoses, therapeutic procedures, reimbursement amounts, and clinical outcomes. Models were trained using data from 2010 to 2015 then utilized to project trends and forecasts for the years 2020 to 2025. Five-fold cross-validation testing was conducted to evaluate the accuracy and generalizability of the predictive models. The model projections indicate that chronic disease prevalence nationwide will rise by approximately 40% by the conclusion of 2025, primarily fueled by growing epidemics of obesity and an increasingly aging American population. Additionally, heart disease and stroke are estimated to maintain their positioning as leading causes of death, but cases of dementia and Alzheimer's disease specifically are projected to climb even more sharply at over a 50% increase. Healthcare costs on the whole are anticipated to rise on average between 4-6% annually, and costs may potentially double for elderly patients presenting with multiple morbidities. As outpatient and home-based care options expand further, inpatient hospital facility utilization may drop marginally between 10-15%. Improved management of chronic medical conditions within local community settings could reduce preventable hospital readmissions from 25-30%. Primary care, nursing, and mental healthcare roles are likely to face looming staffing shortages as well. Telehealth adoption is forecasted to surge by approximately 45% as virtual visit formats help address access obstacles. By 2025, biologics and gene therapies could account for over 25% of total drug spending pertaining to oncology and rare disease treatment. Larger Medicaid, Medicare, and ACA commercial coverage markets may motivate higher rates of health insurance enrollment over the next few years.