Predictive Modeling of Customer Response to Marketing Campaigns

Abstract

In today’s data-driven marketing landscape, predicting customer responses to marketing campaigns is essential for optimizing both engagement and Return On Investment (ROI). This study aims to develop a predictive model using a Decision Tree (DT) to identify key factors influencing customer behavior and improve campaign targeting. The methodology involves building the DT model, initially achieving an accuracy of 87.3%. However, the model faced challenges with precision and recall due to class imbalance. To address this, a resampling technique was applied, which significantly improved model performance, increasing recall from 44% to 83.1% and the F1-score from 49% to 74.2%. Key influential features identified include the recency of a customer’s purchase, their duration as a customer, and their response history to previous campaigns. This study demonstrates the practicality and interpretability of the DT model, offering actionable insights for marketing professionals seeking to enhance campaign effectiveness and customer targeting.