PREDICTIVE MODELING OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN BAHRAIN

Abstract

The aim of this study is to trace the rate of spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and predict the end of the spread of COVID-19 in Bahrain Though the term ‘Corona virus’ hit the headlines from 31 December 2019 and gradually started spreading in leaps and bounds right from January 2020 in Wuhan, China, Bahrain started witnessing cases only in February 2020 With a gradual increase in the number of cases and the number of deaths, the people in Bahrain are deprived of leading a normal routine anymore With the suspension of educational institutes, imposed restrictions on businesses, and the enforced ‘work from home’ on the working class, the COVID-19 has played havoc in the lives of the people residing in Bahrain Extracting the data from web site of Worldometers about the active cases, death cases and recovery cases in Bahrain, and devising a mathematical model, this study traces the spread of the virus for a specified period from 1 March 2020 to 20 September 2020 cumulatively and attempts to predict the rate of spread of the virus using polynomial regression method The proposed prediction of the end of COVID-19 disease in Bahrain will help Bahrain prepare for the post-pandemic scenario keeping in mind the well-being of its residents © 2020, Research Publication All rights reserved