Predictive Modeling of Bioenergy Production from Fountain Grass Using Gaussian Process Regression: Effect of Kernel Functions

Abstract

Experimental studies have shown that bioethanol production from biomass sources has been reported to be influenced by several process parameters. It is not entirely known, however, how the interaction of these factors affects the concentration of bioethanol production. In this study, the use of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) in predictive modeling of bioethanol production from fountain grass has been investigated. Parametric analysis showing the interaction effect of time, pH, temperature, and yeast extract on the bioethanol production was examined. The effect of kernel functions on the performance of the GPR in modeling the prediction of bioenergy output was also examined. The study shows that the kernel function, namely, rotational quadratic (RQGPR), squared exponential (SEGPR), Matern 5/2 (MGPR), exponential (EGPR), and the optimizable (Opt.GPR.), had varying effects on the performance of the GPR. Coefficients of determination (R2) of 0.648, 0.670, 0.667, 0.762, and 0.993 were obtained for the RQGPR, SEGPR, MGPR, EGPR, OptGPR, respectively. The OptGPR with R2 of 0.993 and RMSE of 45.13 displayed the best performance. The input parameters analysis revealed that the pH of the fermentation medium significantly influences bioethanol production. A proper understanding of how the various process variables affect bioethanol production will help in the real-time optimization of the process in the eventuality of scale-up.