Predictive Model of Early Death of Resectable Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma After Curative Resection: A SEER-Based Study

Abstract

ObjectiveThis study aims to determine the factors that predict early death and establish a predictive model for early death by analyzing clinical characteristics of patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (R-PDAC) who die early after radical surgery.Materials and MethodsThis was a retrospective study of patients who underwent radical surgical resection for R-PDAC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients with overall survival ≤ 12 months were assigned as early death group and above 1 year as the late death group. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was conducted to identify factors significantly associated with early death. An early death predictive model was constructed based on the identified independent risk factors.ResultsA total of 9695 patients were analyzed, and the total incidence of early death was 30.72%. Multivariable analysis showed that factors significantly associated with early death included age at diagnosis, race, marital status, tumor location, tumor size, tumor grade, number of positive lymph nodes, number of examined lymph nodes, positive lymph node ratio, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy. The predictive model showed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.722 (95% confidence interval: 0.711-0.733) and convincing calibration.ConclusionsWe developed a predictive model that may be easily applied to patients with R-PDAC after radical resection to predict the chance of death within 1 year. For patients with high risk of early death, neoadjuvant therapy should be considered. Even after radical resection, more aggressive adjuvant chemotherapy (with or without combined radiotherapy) must be used to minimize the chance of early death.