Predictive Model for Postoperative Ambulatory Function after Lower Extremity Bypass in Chronic Limb-Threatening Ischemia

Abstract

In chronic limb-threatening ischemia, maintenance or recovery of ambulatory function is an important goal of treatment. This study aimed to develop a predictive model for ambulatory ability 1year after bypass based on preoperative risk factors, including the Wound, Ischemia, and foot Infection (WIfI) classification. We analyzed 146 patients with chronic limb-threatening ischemia (154 limbs) who underwent bypass to below the knee arteries. The patients were classified into 2 groups based on ambulatory status 1year postoperatively: postoperative ambulation (99 patients, 104 limbs) and postoperative nonambulation (47 patients, 50 limbs). Various factors associated with postoperative ambulation were analyzed and a predictive model of postoperative ambulation was developed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis detected preoperative nonambulatory status, functional nonindependence in daily living, older age, WIfI wound grade 3, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and hemodialysis as independent risk factors for postoperative nonambulation. The predictive scoring model (scores ranging from -5.0 to 4.4) comprising these risk factors discriminated the postoperative ambulatory status well: the probabilities of postoperative ambulatory ability were ≥85% in those with a score ≤-2, 50% in those with a score of zero, and ≤15% in those with a score ≥2. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.898, indicating good performance of the model. Preoperative nonambulatory status, functional nonindependence, advanced age, high WIfI wound grade, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and hemodialysis were important predictors of postoperative nonambulatory status. The predictive model will help us identify patients who will benefit from bypass surgery.