Predictive model for mercury accumulation in carp (Cyprinus carpio) of reservoirs in China

Abstract

Construction of hydroelectric reservoirs in a certain large watershed of China has led to a marked rise in mercury concentration in fish. Correlation analysis and stepwise regression of R values (ratio of mercury concentration in carp from 12 reservoirs and mercury concentration in carp from rivers which feed into the reservoirs) and various hydrologic parameters demonstrate that the ratio of catchment area and runoff is the crucial determining factor. Other determining factors are the ratio of flooding area of land and reservoir area of dead storage capacity, and the reciprocal of reservoir area. On this basis, the predictive models of mercury accumulation in carp after reservoir construction, with one and two parameter, respectively, were obtained. The predictive models were found to be of high precision.