Predictive Measurement of the Structure of Land Use in an Urban Agglomeration Space

Xinqi Zheng,Fei Liu,Qing Huang

doi:10.3390/su10010065

Abstract

The scientific measurement of land use in space is an essential task in urban agglomeration studies, and the fractal feature is one of the most powerful tools for describing the phenomenon of space. However, previous research on the fractal feature of land use has mostly been conducted in urban space, and examines the fractal feature of different land use types, respectively; thus, the measurement of the relationship between different land use types was not realized. Meanwhile, previous prediction methods used for spatial land use mostly relied on subjective abstraction of the evolution, theoretically, regardless of whether they were calibrated, so that complete coverage of all the mechanisms could not be guaranteed. Based on this, here, we treat the land use structure in urban agglomeration space as the research object, and attempt to establish a fractal measure method for the relationship between different land use types in the space of urban agglomeration. At the same time, we use the allometric relationship between “entirety” and “local” to establish an objective forecast model for the land use structure in urban agglomeration space based on gray prediction theory, to achieve a predictive measurement of the structure of land use in urban agglomeration space. Finally, this study applied the methods on the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration to analyze the evolution of the stability of the structure of land use and achieve predictive measurement of the structure of land use. The results of the case study show that the methods proposed in this study can obtain the measurement of the relationship between different land use types and the land use prediction that does not depend on the subjective exploration of the evolution law. Compared with the measurement methods that analyzed the fractal feature of different land types, respectively, and the prediction methods that rely on subjective choice, the methods presented in this study recaps some innovations and reference values for relevant future research.

Highlights

Urban agglomeration is the carrier of social development, which is an important research object in urban geography
To avoid subjective faults in the selection of judgment criteria or factors according to the complex spatial interactions, with the allometric relationship we established the contact between the “entirety” and the “local”, and based on the gray prediction for the entirety of the land of the urban agglomeration space we achieve the prediction for the local land of the urban agglomeration space and the predictive fractal measurement of the structure of land use in the urban agglomeration space
From the perspective of the structure of land use in urban agglomeration space, this research realized the measurement of the structure of land use by establishing a fractal measure method for the relationship between different land use types

Summary

Introduction

Urban agglomeration is the carrier of social development, which is an important research object in urban geography. The research into the fractal features of land use described above were not in the space of urban agglomeration and most studied the fractal features of different land use types separately; the measurements of the relationship between different land use types were not realized. To avoid subjective faults in the selection of judgment criteria or factors according to the complex spatial interactions, with the allometric relationship we established the contact between the “entirety” and the “local”, and based on the gray prediction for the entirety of the land of the urban agglomeration space we achieve the prediction for the local land of the urban agglomeration space and the predictive fractal measurement of the structure of land use in the urban agglomeration space. We applied the measurement and prediction method proposed in this study to the space of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration to analyze the spatial evolution of the structure of land use in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration space to validate the feasibility of the methods

Method

Conclusions