Predictive Leakage Estimation using the Cumulative Minimum Night Flow Approach

Abstract

Several methods have been used in estimating leakages. Although the minimum night flow analysis method has been widely used in leakage estimation, the cumulative minimum night flow method is one method that can yield comparatively good leakage estimates. This paper applies the cumulative minimum night flow method to estimate water leakage in a water distribution system. The cumulative minimum night flow method develops a model from empirical night flows which is used to estimate mean minimum night flows and hence estimate leakages. The result was compared with the South Africa minimum night flow analysis methodology. It was found out that the model developed from the cumulative minimum night flow method yielded good result, (R2=0.9998). Thus, the cumulative minimum night flow method could be relied on in predicting leakage estimates in water distribution systems. Furthermore, the model could be used in other locations other than that described in this paper.