‘Predictive intelligence for tomorrow’s threats’: is predictive intelligence possible?

Abstract

ABSTRACT The world is facing an ever-changing array of complex threats to international security. Yet intelligence agencies have a mixed record of anticipating these threats, while decision-makers have an equally mixed record of effectively acting on predictive intelligence when offered. Sometimes intelligence has provided a useful warning, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but at other times it has failed to anticipate critical events, such as the progress of fighting in Ukraine or the likelihood that a mob would carry out a deadly assault on the US Capitol building. And at still other times intelligence agencies appear to have provided warning, and yet policy makers failed to listen, such as before the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October 2023. This special issue looks toward future threats and challenges and asks, how can intelligence better inform policy makers and help them anticipate and act upon future threats?