Predictive formula for acute liver failure is useful for predicting the prognosis of patients with acute‐on‐chronic liver failure

Abstract

The prognosis of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is extremely poor in comparison to acute liver failure (ALF). We aimed to establish methods for the early diagnosis of ACLF and its severity to identify the patients with a poor prognosis. The laboratory data at admission of 30 ACLF and 46 ALF patients were compared. Three established prognosis prediction models (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease [MELD]; MELD modified by serum sodium concentration, [MELD-Na]; and the Japan hepatic encephalopathy prediction model [J-HEPM]) were assessed using area under the receiver-operator curve (AUROC) values. No significant difference was found in the laboratory data of the two patient groups. J-HEPM was able to predict the outcome of the ACLF subjects (AUROC = 0.93). Although ACLF could not be differentially diagnosed from ALF at admission from the laboratory data alone, the J-HEPM effectively predicted the prognosis of liver failure in patients with ACLF. These findings indicate that ACLF patients with high J-HEPM scores require earlier and more intensive care than ALF patients.