Predictive Factors of Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Liver Transplantation: A Multivariate Analysis

Abstract

We analyzed predictive risk factors for recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data from 109 consecutive HCC patients who underwent OLT at our center from 1988 to 2007. We excluded all patients who died due to factors other than tumor recurrence within the first year (n = 24). The remaining 85 patients were enrolled in either a recurrence group (A; n = 19) or a nonrecurrence group (B; n = 66). Upon univariate analysis, the 2 groups were significantly different for 11 parameters. Group A included more females ( P = .05), noncirrhotic liver recipients ( P = .003), “up-to 7 status” patients (HCC with 7 as the sum of the size of the largest tumor [cm] and the number of tumors, P < .0001), patients exceeding Milan criteria (MC; P < .0001) or University of California San Francisco (UCSF) criteria ( P < .0001), and OLT performed before 1999 ( P = .003). Group A also showed a higher number of lesions ( P = .035), a greater sum of diameters of the lesions ( P < .0001), a major number of macrovascular ( P < .0001) and microvascular invasions ( P < .0001), and an increased number of G3–G4 grading ( P = .006). Only microvascular invasion ( P = .007) and exceeding UCSF criteria ( P = .003) were independent risk factors for recurrence upon multivariate analysis. Patients with both these parameters are not candidates for OLT. Microvascular invasion is a good predictive parameter, but is impossible to detect preoperatively. New pre-OLT predictive risk factors are needed to achieve optimal results.