Predictive factors of management outcome in adult patients with mechanical intestinal obstruction.

Abstract

Mechanical intestinal obstruction (MIO) is a common and potentially fatal surgical emergency, which constitutes about 20% of all admissions to the surgical emergency departments. To determine the predictive factors of morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing treatment for MIO at our tertiary hospital. This was a prospective study of consecutive patients, 18 years and above, that presented with features of MIO during a 1-year period (May 2014 to April 2015). Each patient had resuscitation, comprehensive clinical evaluation, appropriate investigations and definitive treatment. The data were analysed using SPSS version 22. One hundred and five patients were studied. The age range was 18-86 years with a mean (standard deviation) of 45.6 (14.8) years. There were 54 males with a male to female ratio of 1.1-1. The common causes of MIO were post-operative adhesion (48.6%), tumour (25.7%), external hernia (15.2%) and volvulus (5.7%). Eighty-four patients (80%) had operative intervention while 21 patients (20%) had conservative management. Univariate analysis showed that dehydration, tachycardia (>90 bpm), pyrexia, abnormal levels of potassium, urea and creatinine, leucocytosis, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) status >IIIE, bowel resection, intraoperative blood loss >500 ml and duration of surgery >2 h were significant predictors of mortality (P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that elevated serum urea at hospital presentation and ASA status greater than IIIE were the independent predictors of mortality, but none of the factors could independently predict morbidity. The most common post-operative complication and cause of death were wound infection (29.6%) and sepsis (66.7%). The mortality rate was 14.3%. The most common cause of MIO was post-operative adhesion. Elevated serum urea and ASA status greater than IIIE were the independent predictors of mortality.