Predictive factors of brain death in severe stroke patients identified by organ procurement and transplant coordination in Lorrain, France.

Abstract

There are no established predictive factors to identify patients at the acute phase of severe stroke with a high probability of presenting brain death (BD). We retrospectively collected clinical and paraclinical data of consecutive patients at the acute phase of severe stroke with a potential progression to BD through the hospital organ procurement and transplant coordination system in five centres in Lorrain (France) between 1 January 2012 and 31 December 2013. Final endpoint was adjudicated BD. Of 400 included patients, 91 (23%) presented adjudicated BD. Initial Glasgow Coma Scale score ≤6 (P=0.008), herniation (P=0.009), hydrocephalus (P=0.019), initial systolic blood pressure >150mmHg (P=0.002), past history of alcohol abuse (P=0.019) and stroke volume >65ml (P=0.040) were significantly associated with BD progression. Two prognostic scores for stroke with unquantifiable or quantifiable volume were built according to the number of risk factors presented. Following internal validation, the respective bias-corrected predictive performance (c-index) of the two scores was 72% (95% confidence interval: 67-78%) and 77% (95% confidence interval: 72-82%). These scores could form the basis of a simple tool of six criteria to help physicians make the difficult decision of intensive care unit management to preserve organs in potential donors.