Predictive factors for intrahepatic recurrence after percutaneous ethanol injection therapy for small hepatocellular carcinoma

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BACKGROUND Percutaneous ethanol injection therapy has been used widely for small hepatocellular carcinoma. This study was undertaken to determine factors predictive of local recurrence or new nodular recurrence in patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma treated with percutaneous ethanol injection. METHODS The authors studied 73 nodules treated with percutaneous ethanol injection in 49 patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma. The usefulness of predictive factors for recurrence was assessed with the Kaplan–Meier method. The clinicopathologic variables examined included age, gender, Child–Pugh classification, number of tumors (single vs. multiple), tumor size, degree of tumor differentiation, ultrasonographic findings such as peripheral hypoechoic band (so-called ′halo′), intratumoral echo pattern, tumor staining on enhanced computed tomography, combination therapy with transcatheter arterial embolization, and serum α-fetoprotein level. RESULTS The local recurrence rates were 19%, 27%, 33%, 33%, and 33%, respectively, and the new nodular recurrence rates were 19%, 51%, 74%, 83%, and 83%, respectively, at 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years after percutaneous ethanol injection therapy. The frequency of local recurrence was associated with the histologic differentiation of more than moderately differentiated (P < 0.001), presence of a sonographic halo (P < 0.005), an intratumoral heterogeneous echo pattern (P < 0.001), and positive tumor staining on enhanced computed tomography (P < 0.01). Multivariate analysis showed that the presence of a halo and an intratumoral heterogeneous echo pattern were the most important variables for predicting local recurrence. The frequency of new nodular recurrences was related to the presence of multiple tumors (P < 0.01) and a high serum α-fetoprotein level (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that a high serum α-fetoprotein level was a reliable predictor of new nodular recurrence. CONCLUSIONS This study showed that the presence of a halo and an intratumoral echo pattern on ultrasonography were useful predictors for local recurrence after percutaneous ethanol injection therapy for small hepatocellular carcinoma, and that a high serum α-fetoprotein level was associated with a higher frequency of new nodular recurrences. Cancer 2000;88:529–37. © 2000 American Cancer Society.