Abstract
The article notes the need for the transition of the resource sector of the Russian economy to an innovative development path and shows the potential for this. Some results of constructing a scenario forecast of the Russian economy development using the expert-statistical Bayesian method are presented. The peculiarity of the method: it is based on expert estimates and allows you to make forecasts in conditions of severe uncertainty. A predictive assessment of the resource sector impact on innovation in Russia in the period until 2030-2035 was made in the framework of the study. According to experts, the existing potential will not be fully utilized. Insufficient participation of the resource sector in the national innovation process is projected; attraction to import is the most likely. This reflects the general trend of the forecasted scientific and technological development of a country with a “sluggish” innovation market: insufficient supply, insufficient demand and the weak mechanism of the relationship between the first and second.
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