Predictive analysis and countermeasures in response to COVID-19 epidemic in 2020–2021

Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a natural emerging virus, with rapid virus replication, wide cell tropism, and strong survival ability. Its epidemic characteristics are similar to those of influenza virus. Asymptomatic infections are widespread in a covert way, and the virus has adapted to human population, making it difficult to control the transmission. The global epidemic in 2020/2021 may further deteriorate before the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are widely applied and show protective effectiveness, and China will still face the risk of continuous overseas multi-channel import and local outbreaks or recurrence of the epidemic. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out further surveillance about the prevalence and infection of SARS-CoV-2 in the population and the corresponding environment of the high-risk areas in China, and establish a national super mobile SARS-CoV-2 detection network laboratory for performing ultra-large-scale testing tasks; implement differentiated vaccination strategies and closely follow up and monitor the effectiveness and efficiency of vaccination; and continue to strengthen effective public health measures such as wearing masks, washing hands frequently, keeping social distances, opening windows frequently, and reducing gatherings. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic warns us once again that the continuous emergence of new infectious diseases caused by unknown pathogens of wild animal origin has become the new normal status. It is necessary to systematically carry out unknown microbial discovery and reverse pathogenic etiology research in a prospective manner, and actively defend against emerging infectious diseases in the future.