Predictive analysis and basic judgment of development targets in China's wind power industry

Abstract

This paper presents the basic principles and the starting point which can help us to set goals for wind power industry development. After analyzing the existing development goals of national wind power industry, this paper finds that the national planned target for wind power is too low, and the actual installed capacity of wind power has doubled compared to the national planned target of 2010. Besides, the planning goals of every provinces are different, which are high on the whole, and there is a phenomenon of target comparison. This paper predicates the scientific goals of the development of China's wind power industry by using accumulation value method, local growth rate method, analogy growth rate method, GM (1, 1) model and so on. The goal is that the installed capacity of China's wind power will come to 16.33 million kW by 2010, 41.72 million kW by 2015, and 100.21 million kW by 2020, which accounts for 8.35% of total installed electricity capacity within the same period. It is also estimated that China's installed capacity of wind power will account for 8.15% of global total installed capacity of wind power industry by 2020, and the wind power industry will step into a stage of rapid development.