Abstract
A Gleasonian model of succession (van der Valk, 1981) was used to predict the species composition of a freshwater marsh following fire. Seed bank samples from 5 vegetation types ( Distichlis spicata (L.) Greene, Scirpus lacustris L., S. maritimus L., Typha spp., open water) were used in conjuction with plant life history characteristics to make predictions of post-fire species composition for each vegetation type and the entire study area. In general, predictions for specific vegetation types were not good, but were more accurate for the entire area. Stronge correlations for specific vegetation types may have been prevented by considering marsh vegetation types as discrete units, statistical sampling problems, competitive interactions, or more specific germination requirements of some species.
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