Predictions of potential geographical distribution of Alhagi sparsifolia under climate change

Abstract

Specific information on geographic distribution of a species is important for its conservation. This study was conducted to determine the potential geographic distribution of Alhagi sparsifolia, which is a plant used in traditional Uighur medicine, and predict how climate change would affect its geographic range. The potential geographic distribution of A. sparsifolia under the current conditions in China was simulated with MaxEnt software based on species presence data at 42 locations and 19 climatic variables. The future distributions of A. sparsifolia were also projected in 2050 and 2070 under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 described in 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).The result showed that mean temperature of the coldest quarter, annual mean temperature, precipitation of the coldest quarter, annual precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month, mean temperature of the wettest quarter and the temperature annual range were the seven climatic factors influencing the geographic distribution of A. sparsifolia under current climate, the suitable habitats are mainly located in the Xinjiang, in the middle and north of Gansu, in the west of Neimeng, in the north of Nei Monggol. From 2050 to 2070, the model simulations indicated that the suitable habitats of A. sparsifolia would decrease under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and scenarios of RCP8.5 on the whole.