Abstract
Even if the epidemic of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is still far from being over worldwide, the health effects of regulations banning asbestos can be evaluated in the countries that implemented them early. Estimates of MPM future burden can be useful to inform and support the implementation of anti-asbestos health policies all around the world. With this aim we described the trends of MPM deaths in Italy (1970–2014) and predicted the future number of cases in both sexes (2015–2039), with consideration of the national asbestos ban that was issued in 1992. The Italian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT) provided MPM mortality figures. Cases ranging from 25 to 89 years of age were included in the analysis. For each five-year period from 1970 to 2014, mortality rates were calculated and age–period–cohort Poisson models were used to predict future burden of MPM cases until 2039. During the period 1970–2014 a total number of 28,907 MPM deaths were observed. MPM deaths increased constantly over the study period, ranging from 1356 cases in 1970–1974 to 5844 cases in 2010–2014. The peak of MPM cases is expected to be reached in the period 2020–2024 (about 7000 cases). The decrease will be slow: about 26,000 MPM cases are expected to occur in Italy during the next 20 years (2020–2039). The MPM epidemic in Italy is far from being concluded despite the national ban implemented in 1992, and the peak is expected in 2020–2024, in both sexes. Our results are consistent with international literature.
Highlights
Malignant mesothelioma is one of the worst legacies of asbestos exposure, causing an estimated figure of 27,000 deaths per year worldwide [1,2]
The aim of the present paper is to describe the observed number of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) deaths in Italy during the period 1970–2014 and to provide predictions of the number of deaths expected in the decades
Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) mortality data were not available for 2004, missing data were calculated by interpolation of data from 2003 and 2005.The present analysis was restricted to cases aged between 25 and 89 years of age, as MPM is extremely rare before 25 and diagnosis less certain after 89 years of age
Summary
Malignant mesothelioma is one of the worst legacies of asbestos exposure, causing an estimated figure of 27,000 deaths per year worldwide [1,2]. As malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is mainly caused by asbestos exposure [3], incidence and mortality for this disease are often used as a marker of previous exposures to asbestos. The observation of increasing trends of MPM occurrence provided a clear alarm regarding the impact of asbestos exposure [4], while the analyses of trends have been used. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 607; doi:10.3390/ijerph17020607 www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph
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