Predictions of El Ni&amp;amp;#241;o, La Ni&amp;amp;#241;a and Record Low Chicago Temperature by Sunspot Number

Tai-Jin Kim

doi:10.4236/ns.2019.116021

Abstract

The El Nino Index, defined as 4 intensities (very strong, strong, moderate, weak) in Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), was positively correlated with the average sunspot number at each intensity. The La Niña Index, defined as 3 intensities (strong, moderate, weak) in ONI, was negatively correlated with the average sunspot number from 1954 to 2017. It appears that very strong El Niño events occur frequently during the maximal sunspot number while strong La Niña events more often occur during the minimal sunspot number. Since greenhouse-gas is continuously increased, it is therefore proposed that the maximal sunspot number is a major parameter for prediction of El Niño while the minimal sunspot number applies in the same way for La Niña. El Nino/La Nina events can be classified as four typical cases depending upon the submarine volcanic activities at seamounts in Antarctica and South America. The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of the South and Central Americas are warmer than SST of East Australian Current (EAC), due to the strong volcanic eruptions in the Seamounts and the Ridges in South and Central Americas. This results in the Central Pacific Current (CPC) flowing from east to west due to the second law of thermodynamics for thermal flow from hot source to cold sink. In contrast the opposite direction is made if SST in EAC is warmer than SST in the Central/South American Seamounts and Ridges, due to the strong volcanic eruptions in the Antarctic Seamounts and Ridges. Chicago was selected as a case study for the relationship between extreme cold weather conditions and minimal sunspot number. Previous attempts at predicting weather patterns in Chicago have largely failed. The years of the record low temperatures in Chicago were significantly correlated with the years of the minimal sunspot number from 1873 to 2019. It is forecast that there may occur a weak La Niña in 2019 and another record low temperature in Chicago in January of 2020 due to the phase of the minimal sunspot number in 2019. It may be possible to predict very strong El Nino events with the year of maximal sunspot number as El Niño Index (R2 = 0.7363) and the years of strong volcanic eruption in the Galapagos Hot Spot (GHS) (R2 = 0.9939), respectively. An El Niño event is thus expected during the year of strong volcanic eruption in the GHS. Strong La Niña events can be expected during the year of minimal sunspot number with La Niña Index (R2 = 0.9922). Record low temperatures in Chicago can be also predicted (R2 = 0.9995) during the year of the minimal sunspot number, as was recently the case in January, 2019.

Highlights

The sunspot numbers between 1870 and 2020 are shown in Figure 1 [1] while the detailed sunspot number between 2000 and 2019 was shown in another work of Hataway [2]
In contrast the opposite direction is made if Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in East Australian Current (EAC) is warmer, due to the strong volcanic eruptions in the Antarctic Seamounts and Ridges (Table 3), than SST of the sum of Volcanic activity in the Galapagos Hot Spot (GHS) (VGHS) and Peru Current (PC) (Table 1)
The La Niña Index, defined as 3 intensities in Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), was negatively correlated with the average sunspot number from 1954 to 2017. It appears that very strong El Niño events occur frequently during the maximal sunspot number while strong La Niña events occur more often during the minimal sunspot number

Summary

Introduction

The sunspot numbers between 1870 and 2020 are shown in Figure 1 [1] while the detailed sunspot number between 2000 and 2019 was shown in another work of Hataway [2]. Every two to seven years, an unusually warm pool of water—sometimes two to three degrees Celsius higher than normal—develops across the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean to create a natural short-term climate change event. This warm condition, known as El Niño, spurs extreme weather patterns around the world, from flooding in California to droughts in Australia [7]. El Niño is known as an irregularly occurring weather phenomenon created through an abnormality in wind and ocean circulation While it originates in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, El Niño has wide-reaching effects. It influences water supplies, fishing industries and food sources [9]

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