Predictions of COVID-19 Spread by Using Supervised Data Mining Techniques

Abstract

In the wake of the outbreak of the new coronavirus, the countries in the world have fought to combat the spread of infection and imposed preventive measures to compel the population to social distancing, which led to a global crisis. Important strategies must be studied and identified to prevent and control the spread of coronavirus COVID-19 disease 2019. In this paper, the effect of preventive strategies on COVID-19 spread was studied, a model based on supervised data mining algorithms was presented and the best algorithm was suggested on the basis of accuracy. In this model, three classifiers (Naive Bayes, Multilayer Perceptron and J48) depended on the questionnaires filled out by Basra City respondents. The questionnaires consisted of 25 questions that covered fields most related to and that affect the prevention of COVID-19 spread, including demographic, psychological, health management, cognitive, awareness and preventive factors. A total of 1017 respondents were collected. This model was developed using Weka 3.8 tool. Results showed that quarantine played an important role in controlling the spread of the disease. By comparing the accuracy of the algorithms used, the best algorithm was found to be J48.