Prediction uncertainty estimates elucidate the limitation of current NSCLC subtype classification in representing mutational heterogeneity

Abstract

The heterogeneous pathogenesis and treatment response of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) has led clinical treatment decisions to be guided by NSCLC subtypes, with lung adenocarcinoma and lung squamous cell carcinoma being the most common subtypes. While histology-based subtyping remains challenging, NSCLC subtypes were found to be distinct at the transcriptomic level. However, unlike genomic alterations, gene expression is generally not assessed in clinical routine. Since subtyping of NSCLC has remained elusive using mutational data, we aimed at developing a neural network model that simultaneously learns from adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma samples of other tissue types and is regularized using a neural network model trained from gene expression data. While substructures of the expression-based manifold were captured in the mutation-based manifold, NSCLC classification accuracy did not significantly improve. However, performance was increased when rejecting inconclusive samples using an ensemble-based approach capturing prediction uncertainty. Importantly, SHAP analysis of misclassified samples identified co-occurring mutations indicative of both NSCLC subtypes, questioning the current NSCLC subtype classification to adequately represent inherent mutational heterogeneity. Since our model captures mutational patterns linked to clinical heterogeneity, we anticipate it to be suited as foundational model of genomic data for clinically relevant prognostic or predictive downstream tasks.