Abstract
Predictions of variable amplitude fatigue life suffer from uncertainties originating from different sources. In this paper, important sources are discussed and estimated, by means of a variable amplitude fatigue model, based on level crossing counts and a version of the Palmgren–Miner cumulative damage rule. The influence of random material strength and parameter estimates is treated in certain detail. The use of simple mathematical models in the analysis introduces systematic errors, which are studied here in terms of the uncertainty regarding the crack opening level at variable amplitude. Additional uncertainties occurring in the fatigue design stage, such as load variation and structural component variability, are briefly discussed and exemplified.
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