PREDICTION SYSTEM FOR THE INFLUENCE OF PHOSPHORUS ON WHEAT YIELD: OPTIMAL HYPERPARAMETER SELECTION

Abstract

Modern studies in the application of machine learning in agrotechnology have showcased significant advancements in accurate crop yield forecasting and agricultural production optimization. This study aimed to select optimal hyperparameters for a neural network designed to forecast the impact of phosphorus on the yield of spring wheat. Tasks to achieve this goal included the selection of optimal neural network hyperparameters and deployment of the prediction model into forecasting system, ensuring accessibility and user convenience. Input dataset consisted of year, region, climatic indicators (temperature of the soil surface, precipitation, humidity), applied phosphorus, and the target variable is the yield of spring wheat. To select the optimal hyperparameters, GridSearchCV was utilized and integrated into the experiment, enabling the achievement of more precise and impactful forecasting outcomes. Experiments aimed at hyperparameter tuning identified an optimal network configuration (3 layers, 32 neurons, 300 epochs, 32 batches). Results from training showcased that this network configuration achieved the best performance, demonstrating minimal mean squared error (MSE). These results introduced a novel scientific approach in training data using this neural network model for forecasting the yield of cereal crops. Developing the prediction system's interface relied on the Streamlit, allowing the creation of an intuitive and user-friendly interface. The visualization derived from this model empowers users to evaluate crop yield and receive recommendations for optimal phosphorus application to enhance spring wheat yield. These results highlighted practical significance of this prediction system, based on neural network utilizing optimal hyperparameters that are ready for practical implementation by system developers.